Friday, October 9th

• Bitcoin slides toward $80K on oil and the Fed

• A $1 billion leverage flush

• Miners post their best month since January

• Washington moves $1.5 billion in bitcoin

• Regulators write the rules Congress hasn't

• Maestro's Bitcoin Solver tops 15 BTC in 24 hours

Market Prices

Markets: Bitcoin slid to an intraday low of $80,427 on Thursday, down from near $87,000 last Friday. Oil and the Fed did the damage: oil prices spiked as attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz mounted, and minutes from the Fed's September meeting showed most officials expect another rate hike by year-end. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 5.36%.

Market Updates

A $1 Billion Leverage Flush

Bitcoin's drop through $81,000 forced out about $1.16 billion in leveraged crypto positions in 24 hours, about 90% of them bets on prices rising, per CoinGlass.

• ETF buyers stepped back at the same time. Spot bitcoin ETFs lost $484.9 million on October 7, their biggest daily outflow since June.

Miners Bank Their Best Month Since January

Bitcoin miners earned $1.12 billion in September, their strongest month since January, as hashprice held around $40 per PH/s.

• Mining difficulty barely moved at the latest adjustment, down 0.03%, and is down about 12% for the year.

Washington Moves $1.5 Billion in Seized Bitcoin

U.S. government wallets moved 17,795 BTC, about $1.5 billion, over three days, including roughly 9,261 BTC sent to Coinbase Prime, according to Arkham and Galaxy Research.

• No sale has been confirmed. The coins trace to seizures like the 2016 Bitfinex hack, and the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve order bars selling reserve coins, with exceptions such as returning funds to victims.

Why It Matters

Oil and a hawkish Fed put pressure on bitcoin, and more than $1 billion in liquidations amplified the selloff. Beneath the volatility, miners posted their strongest month since January, and no sale of the government's transferred bitcoin has been confirmed. Meanwhile, regulators are advancing a framework for crypto markets as Congress remains stalled on legislation. The rules are getting written. Just not by Congress.

By The Numbers

$105

Brent crude per barrel on Thursday morning, after UK officials counted at least nine attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz so far in October.

334 BTC

Strategy's entire bitcoin purchase from October 1 to 4, about $28.7 million, while it spent $73.7 million buying back its STRC preferred stock over the same days.

25,000

Attendees expected at TOKEN2049 Singapore, which sold out ahead of this week's event, with Goldman Sachs, BlackRock and Morgan Stanley among the institutions on hand.

The Deep Dive

Regulators Write the Rules Congress Didn't

The Signal

Congress couldn't pass a crypto market-structure law. Regulators are moving ahead with frameworks of their own.

On October 5, the CFTC opened a rulemaking process for a federal framework governing leveraged retail crypto trading, the same week more than $1 billion in leveraged crypto bets were liquidated. The move came three weeks after the CLARITY Act fell 11 votes short in the Senate, with the SEC advancing its own initiatives in parallel.

What Changed

• The CFTC proposed a new "crypto asset market" category for exchanges where retail customers could trade on margin, with leverage or with financing. It stops short of requiring crypto to trade only on CFTC platforms, which Selig says would take an act of Congress.

• The SEC is moving in parallel, with a proposed offering exemption for crypto projects and a five-year exemption for venues trading tokenized stocks.

• CLARITY isn't dead. A motion to reconsider keeps it alive, and Rep. French Hill still hopes for a vote in the lame-duck session, though the Senate has only 22 scheduled session days left before the next Congress.

The Read

• Leverage is the piece to watch. The CFTC is weighing whether federally registered exchanges should offer retail customers leveraged trading that state-licensed exchanges can't.

• Rules move faster than laws, but they don't last as long. A framework built by agencies is more susceptible to modification by future Commissions than one passed by Congress, and Selig concedes agency action can't substitute indefinitely for a statute.

• For institutions, that's the trade-off: clearer rules to build on now, written by regulators a future administration could replace.

Watch Next

• Federal Register publication of the CFTC proposal, which starts its 60-day comment clock.

• October 20, when comments close on the SEC's offering exemption.

• Whether CLARITY gets a lame-duck vote, as Rep. French Hill still hopes, with only 22 scheduled Senate session days left before the next Congress.

Maestro Updates

Our Bitcoin Solver Tops 15 BTC in 24 Hours

Our Bitcoin Solver processed more than 15 BTC in the last 24 hours, driving activity for the liquidity providers behind it. See it at work in Maestro Treasury.

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